Weekly Crop Commentary - 04/04/2025
Apr 04, 2025
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. The weeks just are flying by for sure. We had a bit of a data overload this week with all the reports. Ohio’s corn stocks came in at 322 million bushels compared to 414 million bushels a year ago. Usage for the quarter was 177 million bushels only trailing that of last year. So, corn rationing hasn’t started yet. In fact, it feels like demand is getting stronger with good feed and ethanol margins. The one looming factor is the whole tariff issue. If our export program does indeed get hurt, then we should see western corn making its way to the east. As we look at the soybean stocks in Ohio, we are at 123 million bushels compared to 132 million bushels a year ago. We do seem to be rationing a bit of soybean demand as quarterly usage was some 20 million bushels lower than a year ago. There are beans from the west working their way east, so this really doesn’t surprise me.
As we look at the planting intentions, we see Ohio farmers plan to plant 150,000 acres of corn less than last year, and 50,000 more of soybeans. The other acreage seems to be made up of wheat and hay. Last week we did see fund managers continue to dump their commodity length. Their length in corn alone was decreased by another 75,000 contracts. I would suspect we see more of the same later this afternoon when we get the next report. The tariff issues are surely causing some uncertainty in the grain markets, and it will be some time before we see the effects. The weather sure sounds wet for the weekend with an additional 2+ inches of rain expected. That will sure put the thoughts of an early spring planting season to bed. Stay dry and have a great weekend.
Haylee VanScoy
Director of Grain Purchasing
It’s been a wild ride this week across both the corn belt and the markets. Between the Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports, widespread Midwest thunderstorms, and an avalanche of trade headlines, it’s safe to say everyone’s been on edge. The global grain trade is entering uncharted territory after President Trump unveiled his tariff plans—10% minimum duties across nearly all U.S. trade partners beginning Saturday, with an additional round of reciprocal tariffs hitting 60 countries next Wednesday. China, Thailand, and Vietnam take the brunt of retaliation, with Chinese goods now facing a staggering 67% total import tax. While Canada and Mexico are spared from new reciprocal tariffs, existing ones still apply—though USMCA-compliant ag goods remain exempt. That’s a small win for North American trade flow, but broader ag markets are still left nervously awaiting the impact.
Grain prices have reacted accordingly. Old crop corn closed the week up 8 cents and new crop up around a nickel—a welcome relief, though not nearly enough to offset the staggering 60-cent collapse we’ve seen in the soybean market over the last two days. Despite positive midweek developments in biofuels, the sentiment was quickly squashed after China imposed 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports—particularly painful as they remain our top buyer for soybeans. Big picture: the world didn’t lose any grain overnight, but the pathway it travels is shifting fast. With companies like CNH halting equipment shipments amid trade uncertainty and traders fleeing toward safe havens like treasuries, we’re reminded that fear—not fundamentals—is often the biggest mover of markets. As we inch toward planting season, now’s the time to focus on what’s in your control and let the dust settle. New trade routes will emerge, and opportunities will follow—but it might be a bumpy road getting there.
Briana Holtzman
Grain Merchandiser, Upper Sandusky (Region 2)
This was a big week for the markets. The Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports came out Monday. The numbers came in fairly close to estimates and did not have a big effect on the markets. The market reacted well, especially the soybean market off of the back of the soy oil market, to the USDA releasing previously frozen funds for the biofuel infrastructure. Beans saw a 20c gain with this news. Sadly, this was short-lived, as Wednesday brought the Trump tariff update… implementing a minimum of 10% reciprocal tariffs on all US trading partners. He doubled down with China and imposed a 34% tariff on top of their already existing tariffs. China did not respond well to this news and fired back with its own 34% tariff on all US imports. Markets are reacting negatively to this news, mainly beans as China is a buyer of US beans in the off-season.
Next Wednesday is the deadline for enrolling corn and bean bushels into the Average Price Program for 2025! If you are interested in learning more or would like to enroll bushels, please let us know! Have a great weekend and try to stay dry!
Steve Bricher
Grain Merchandiser, Urbana (Region 3)
April showers bring May flowers; well, we have certainly had the showers. 3 inches of rain so far this week and more to come over the weekend. My motorcycle is not happy.
We can sum up the markets this week in one word, tariffs. I don’t want to get political here today, but I also understand free and fare trade. My best guess is that the President is trying to level the playing field for American goods or to get companies to build their stuff here. If it works, it will be good in the long run, stay tuned.
We did receive planting intentions last Monday. Corn 95.3 and Soybeans 83.5 - the market reacted pretty well to these numbers. The biggest surprise I saw was that the rest of the Midwest was higher on corn acres except Ohio, which was projected down 150,000 acres. I was kind of confused by that number as Ohio is already tight on corn supplies. We will see what Mother Nature does to help or hurt that number. If the extended weather forecast is correct, we should see planting get started in a few weeks.
We are offering our corn and soybean Average Price Programs again this spring. These both worked out well for harvest bushels last year and history tells us that spring is the best time to get harvest bushels sold. Contact any of us if you have questions or want to put bushels in the program.
Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
Good afternoon, my comments this week are probably going to echo a lot of other comments that are out there over the last few days. We got through Monday’s big USDA report without a big surprise and markets were pretty calm. But, fast forward to today and May25 soybeans are down -.25 cents as I write this column. Corn was down as well but has come back and is up .05 cents right now. Tariffs are the lead story and are at the forefront of everyone’s minds. President Trump and his advisors are looking to change the way not only how the United States trades with the world, but it may reshape how the world trades. I still think that as the dust settles and the knee-jerk reactions calm back down, we will trade the fundamentals once again. We are soon to start the 2025 planting campaign, and we have several months before we have a crop.
Please give us a call to come up with a strategy for both your old crop bushels as well as your NC bushels. We still have a few more days left to put some bushels into the Average Price Program we have running for this year. Give us a call if you would like to talk about that or any other programs we can help you with.
Lastly, I want to wish Lee Lipp a very happy retirement. He has worked at Heritage Cooperative for 42 years and today is his last day. All of us want to wish him a very happy & healthy retirement. I have had the privilege of working with him all of those 42 years. Have a great weekend everybody!!!